Each scenario is a stake and the odds you give it. Compare what exit each one needs and what it’s worth, against a take-home target you set once.
Up and to the left is better: a smaller exit, more likely. Above the dashed line, the payout is worth your 4 years on average.
| Scenario | Exit needed | vs today | Expected value | Time saved* |
|---|
Differences are relative to the selected scenario. *Odds-weighted: expected value in years of salary, minus the 4 years worked.
Salary: take-home pay you’d earn elsewhere, or the pay gap if the startup also pays you. Preferences: roughly what investors put in, paid back before common splits the rest. Amounts accept 250k, 5M, 1.2B.
The link holds every scenario and assumption and updates as you edit; nothing is saved anywhere else. Simplified model: payout = (stake at exit × (exit − preferences) − exercise cost) × (1 − tax), where stake at exit is today’s ownership after the dilution path. Break-even odds = 4 × salary ÷ target. It ignores secondary sales, vesting cliffs and the time value of money. Not financial or tax advice.